# Predictive Purchasing

## Overview

Predictive purchasing helps you forecast the order quantity for a predicted number of future sales. The projection is based on several factors, including the number of past sales and the currently available quantity. Past sales are used to determine the velocity or the rate of sales per day over a given date range. Velocity is then multiplied to calculate the deficit supply for multiple date ranges. In more complex cases, days in stock and on-order quantities are also factored into the prediction.

Before you use Predictive Purchasing, read about the [Predictive Purchasing tools](https://descartessystems.aha.io/pages/7630842149188006569) and the configurations you need before you get started.

You can create a [Scheduled Task](https://descartessystems.aha.io/pages/7630838715868958891) that automatically exports a predictive purchasing Excel file.

You can now try Sellercloud's new [Enhanced Predictive Purchasing](https://help.sellercloud.com/sellercloud-knowledge-base/purchasing/predictive-purchasing/predictive-purchasing~7630842156078918071#Enhanced_Predictive_Purchasing), which offers even more features.

## Key Terms and Settings

|     |     |
| --- | --- |
| **TERM** | **DEFINITION** |
| **Days OF Order** | Days of past sales on which you are basing the prediction. This generates a daily velocity. Days with no stock availability are skipped in the Days OF Order Count. <br>Days with no stock are only skipped when the client setting **Use InStock days in predictive purchasing data** is enabled. |
| **Days TO Order** | Days to which you are multiplying the daily velocity to generate an Add to PO Qty. While the deficit supply will be calculated for all dates, this selection enables a quick add to PO. See below. |
| **Velocity** | Rate of sales per day when calculated by **Qty Sold** in **Days OF Order** divided by **Days OF Order**. |
| **Deficit Supply** | Predicted deficit to your supply for multiple date ranges calculated as ( **Velocity \* Days TO Order) – (Available Quantity + On Order).** |

**Example:** Days of Order 30, Days to Order 15. In this example, 108 units were sold in the past 30 days ( **Qty Sold** column). Since it is based on a 30-day period, the daily sales velocity is 3.6.

- **Deficit Supply 15**— Multiplying 3.6 by 15 = 54. Subtract available qty of 28 to get a Deficit 15 of 26. **((108/30) \* 15) – 28 = 26**

- **Deficit Supply30**— Multiplying 3.6 by 30 = 108. Subtract available qty of 28 to get a Deficit 30 of 80 **((108/30) \* 30)** – **28 = 80**

- **Deficit Supply 45**—Multiplying 3.6 by 45 = 162. Subtract the available quantity of 28 to get a Deficit 45 of 134. **((108/30) \* 45) – 28 = 134**

- **The same calculation is for 60 and 90; see below for an explanation of 11/M.**

Since **Days To Order 15** was selected, the deficit qty of 26 was auto-entered into the **Qty** field to add to a PO.

### Vendor Lead Time

You can add another parameter called **Vendor Lead Time** to the calculation. The Vendor Lead Time is the time it takes for a vendor to ship a purchase order to you. Enabling this feature changes the **Deficit Supply** calculation:

- **Deficit Supply =** **(Velocity \* (Days TO Order + Vendor Lead Time)) - (Available Quantity + On Order).**

App Setting **IncludeVendorLeadTimeInPredictedPurchasingCalcuation** must be enabled for this workflow! Open a ticket with [Sellercloud Support](https://descartessystems.aha.io/pages/7630841494839563427) to ensure that this setting is enabled for your account.

### Exclude Channels From Predictive Purchasing

To exclude channels from predictive purchasing:

1. Go to **Settings**.
2. Select **Purchasing** \> **Predicted Purchasing Excluded Channels**.
3. Check **Enabled** for channels you want to exclude from the predicted purchasing report and click **Save**.

## Generate a Purchase Prediction

Purchasing predictions are generated automatically when the client setting **Calculate Qty Sold in X days for Predicted Purchasing** is enabled. This client setting is enabled by default.

Additionally, the service **Product Inventory Movement Service** must be running on your server. This service runs once daily, around 2 AM.

To generate a Purchase Prediction:

1. Go to **Purchasing** \> **Tools** \> **Predictive Purchasing.**
2. Select the **Days Of Order** / **Days To Order** from their respective default filter dropdowns.
3. Select **Yes** from the **Show Only with Qty Ordered** default filter.
4. Click **Search** to populate the grid with items with the columns from the section below.

5. Refer to the Filters and Columns section below for descriptions of all filters and columns on this page.

If the settings or services were not properly configured or if any client settings were changed since the last time the Predictive Purchase data was calculated, please follow these steps to re-calculate this data:

1. Go to **Purchasing** \> **Tools** \> **Predictive Purchasing**.
2. If the services above have been set, go to **Step #3** above. If not, or if you want to calculate based on even more recent data, open the **Action** menu and choose **Generate Data for Sold Since Last Year** \> **Go**. This will calculate data for all products in your catalog. Alternatively, you can select specific items on the grid and choose **Generate Data for Selected SKUs** from the **Action** menu. SKUs will only appear in the grid after Steps 5 and 6 have been completed.

### Filters and Columns

The table below lists and defines all default filters.

|     |     |
| --- | --- |
| **FILTER** | **DEFINITION** |
| **Keyword** | Show only products whose product name includes specific keywords or phrases. |
| **Company** | Show only products from specific [Companies](https://descartessystems.aha.io/pages/7630838368529930257). |
| **Purchaser** | Show only products bought by specific [Purchasers](https://descartessystems.aha.io/pages/7630831446725844179). |
| **Vendor** | Show only products from specific [Vendors](https://help.sellercloud.com/omnichannel-ecommerce/vendors-overview/). |
| **Has Vendor Price** | Set to **Yes** to search for any product from the vendor selected in the **Pricing For Vendor Name** filter. Otherwise, you search only for products with the selected vendor set up as the **Default Vendor**. |
| **Days Of Order** | Days of past sales on which you are basing the prediction. This generates a daily velocity. Days with no stock availability are skipped in the **Days OF Order** count when the Client Setting **Use InStock days in predictive purchasing data** is enabled. |
| **Days To Order** | Days to which you are multiplying the daily velocity to generate an **Add to PO Qty**. While the deficit supply will be calculated for all dates, this selection enables a quick add to PO. |
| **Avail From Warehouse** | Show available inventory only for specific [Warehouses](https://descartessystems.aha.io/pages/7630858407067196545). |
| **Show Only with Qty to be Ordered** | Show only products with quantity to be ordered. |

The table below lists and defines all custom filters.

|     |     |
| --- | --- |
| **CUSTOM FILTER** | **DEFINITION** |
| **Available Local Qty Range** | Search for products that have local available quantity within a specified range. |
| **Brand** | Show only products from a specific [Brand](https://descartessystems.aha.io/pages/7630845544888771508). |
| **Days Until Depletion From** | Set a From date to show only products whose depletion is within a specific date range. |
| **Days Until Depletion To** | Set a To date to show only products whose depletion is within a specific date range. |
| **Default Vendor** | Show only products that have a specific default vendor assigned. |
| **Exclude Dependent Kits** | When enabled, [All Component and Main Component Kits](https://descartessystems.aha.io/pages/7630853782418249007) will not be displayed in the results grid, but they will still be included in the calculation. |
| **Exclude Independent Kits** | Exclude [Independent Kits](https://descartessystems.aha.io/pages/7630853782418249007) from being displayed. However, the calculation will still take them into account. |
| **Exclude OnOrder Qty** | Exclude product quantities that are currently on order from the calculation. |
| **Exclude Ship From Vendor Products** | Exclude all products with the setting **DropShip Mode** set to **Ship From Vendor** on their **Shipping Preferences** page. |
| **Ignore quantity from non-sellable warehouses** | Only consider sellable inventory in the calculation. |
| **Manufacturer** | Show only products from specific [manufacturers](https://descartessystems.aha.io/pages/7630846006247898169). |
| **Pricing For Vendor Name** | Show a specific vendor’s price in the **Vendor Price** column. |
| **Product Group** | Show only products from specific [Product Groups](https://descartessystems.aha.io/pages/7630846170721477604). |
| **Product ID** | Show only specific SKUs. |
| **Product Type** | Show only products from specific [Product Types](https://descartessystems.aha.io/pages/7630846425065558750). |
| **Ship From Warehouse** | Show only quantities shipped from specific **Ship From Warehouses**. This requires the [Client Setting](https://descartessystems.aha.io/pages/7630835167106228692) **Enable Predictive Restocking Based On Ship From Warehouse**. |
| **Show Profit by Kit Component** | Show profit broken down by [Kit components](https://descartessystems.aha.io/pages/7630853782418249007). |
| **Velocity Range** | Show only products within a specific **Velocity** range. |

When the results grid loads and you select specific SKUs that have a number larger than 0 in the **Qty** column, the bottom of the page will display the **Total Cost** of the selected products multiplied by the quantity. Additionally, if these SKUs have a **CBM Per Unit**(Cubic Meters) configured in the **Purchasing** Tab of their [Properties](https://descartessystems.aha.io/pages/7630846719601169819) page, the **Predictive Purchasing Report** will also display the **Total CBM** of the selected rows. This functionality is available when the **Display Additional CBM and Weight Information** [Client Setting](https://descartessystems.aha.io/pages/7630835167106228692) is enabled. The table below lists and defines some commonly-used columns.

|     |     |
| --- | --- |
| **COLUMN** | **DEFINITION** |
| **ProductID** | The product SKU. |
| **ProductName** | The product name. |
| **ASIN** | Amazon Standard Identification Number |
| **Avail. Local Qty** | Quantity in all warehouses. |
| **Qty To Order** | Automatically populated. You can update this field manually by: <br>- Open the **Action** menu and choose **Add to PO** **\> Go**. You will be prompted to create a new PO or add to an existing one.<br>  <br>- Choose your option and click **Continue**. |
| **Velocity** | Rate of sales per day. Calculated as Qty Sold in Days of Order divided by Days of Order. |
| **Qty Sold** | Quantity sold in the selected **Days of Order**. Based on the Client Setting above, sales will be calculated for the days the inventory was available. This means that if there were days within the selected **Days of Order** when there was no available inventory, those days would be skipped in the count. |
| **Deficit Supply** | The predicted deficit to your supply. This is calculated as follows: ( **Velocity x Days To Order) – (Available quantity + On Order)**. |
| **11 Mo** | Quantity Sold in a given month for 11 months back. This can be helpful when trying to determine quantities to order for seasonal periods, which are often different than those preceding non-season months. For example, if you are at the beginning of November and want to determine how much to order for the coming seasonal month of December, this column will look back 11 months – to December – and display the quantity sold for the month of December. This can be used as an indicator if you need to order more quantity than was the quantity calculated based on the regular velocity. |
| **On Order** | Shows how many units are on open Purchase Orders. **PO must be set as “Approved” to consider quantity “On Order.”** It is critical for determining if a product needs to be ordered and, if so, how many units to purchase. After determining how many units are needed for the given time period, both the available quantity and OnOrder quantities are factored in to determine how many need to be ordered. Clicking the OnOrder Quantity will open the related PO. |
| **Vendor** | Default vendor for the product. |
| **Vendor Price** | Price for the default vendor. |
| **Amazon BuyBox Price** | Retail price of Amazon’s BuyBox. Many online sellers use this information to determine if they can be competitive on a given product or if they should discontinue the product. Read how to [get the Amazon BuyBox](https://descartessystems.aha.io/pages/7630832937734363667). |

## Add Items to PO

To create a PO from the Predictive Purchasing report:

1. A deficit quantity based on the **Days To Order** selection will auto-populate in the **Qty To Order** field. Edit the field as necessary.

2. Select the products on the grid.
3. Click the **Actions** icon and select **Add to PO**.

4. The **Add Products to PO** will open:

1. The first step will show you a grid of the selected products, where you can make final quantity adjustments. Additionally, at the bottom of the grid, you will see the total **Cost** and **CBM** (Cubic Meters) for all the products multiplied by the number of units.

The **CBM per Unit** and **Total CBM** columns become visible when the [Client Setting](https://descartessystems.aha.io/pages/7630835167106228692) **Display Additional CBM and Weight Information** is enabled.
   2. Then, you will be prompted to either create a new PO or add to an existing one. Choose your option and click **Next.**
   3. Based on your selection in the previous step, select a PO or configure the **Vendor**, **Company**, and **Case Qty Mode** for your new Purchase Order.

5. Click **Add** to finalize.

When a PO is created with default Case Qty enabled, the supplied units will be added as Case Units.

## Export a Predictive Purchase Report

You can create a [scheduled task](https://descartessystems.aha.io/pages/7630848715868958891) that automatically exports a predictive purchasing Excel file. You can save the file for future reference and documentation. This report will track a variety of information, like **Site Cost** or **Average Profit**.

In the exported Excel file, **TotalQtyExt** is the available qty of the SKU + the available qty of all its replacement products.

To export a Predictive Purchase report:

1. Go to **Purchasing** \> **Predictive Purchasing.**
2. Search and select specific items.
3. Click the **Actions** icon and select **Export Selected Items to Excel.**

## Enhanced Predictive Purchasing

You can enable an enhanced version of the report to add more features.

The **Use Enhanced Predictive Purchasing & FBA Restocking Report** [Client Setting](https://descartessystems.aha.io/pages/7630835167106228692) must be enabled for this workflow.

The enhanced version has **a new column** and a **Level 2** that you can expand per line or for all items simultaneously to see the new features **.** To show or hide **Level 2**, click:

- **(1)** The **Down Arrow** next to the column headers on top for all items.
- **(2)** The **Down Arrow** next to each row for a single item.

### Sales Graph

The **Sales Graph** shows the daily sales for the last 365 days. You can see the following:

1. **Orders** \- The number of orders for each day.
2. **Trendline** \- The sales trend over time.
3. **Averages** \- The average sales **Velocity** for different **Days OF Order** periods. To hide lines, click the colored squares.
4. **Last Year**\- The selected **Days OF Order** time period during the previous year is highlighted in yellow.

### Velocities Chart

The **Velocities Chart** shows the **Quantity Sold**, **Sales Velocity**, and **Restock Quantity** for multiple **Days OF Order** periods. The period you initially selected when generating the report will be highlighted in yellow. To apply the **Restock Quantity** for another period, click **Use**, and it will populate in **Level 1** of the report.

You can switch the **Days OF Order** type between **In Stock Days** and **Calendar Days** with the **toggle button**. The default type comes from the [Client Setting](https://descartessystems.aha.io/pages/7630835167106228692) **Use InStock days in predictive purchasing data**. For **In Stock Days** below 365, the font will be red, indicating a projected velocity that is not entirely based on the actual sales history.

If you choose to show the **Calendar Days**, you will also see the **Last Year** row, which gets the data for the selected **Days OF Order** starting from today’s date on the previous year. For example, if you set the **Days OF Order** to **30** on July 9th, it will check the 30 days after July 9th of the previous year.

If you show the **In Stock Days**, you can click the **Blackout Days** button next to the **Sales Graph** to open the blackout days window.

### Blackout Days

The **Blackout Days** feature allows you to exclude specific days, entire date ranges, or sale quantities above or below specific numbers from the calculation. For example, if there was a sales spike or no sales, you can exclude these days so they don't skew your restocking numbers incorrectly. Blackout days are shown in red in the **Sales Graph**.

[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uzFSLDEZzmw](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uzFSLDEZzmw)

- In the **Blackout Days** grid, you can check the box under the **Blackout Day** column to exclude any day from the calculation.
- In the **Add Range** grid, you can specify a **From Date** and **To Date** to exclude a whole date range or enter a **Qty Sold Above** and/or **Qty Sold Below** to exclude specific sale quantities.
- The **Last Year** period is highlighted in yellow.